El Niño Conditions Likely to Persist Till February 2027: INCOIS Assessment
New Delhi, Aug. 5 (TNT): The El Niño conditions that developed in May 2026 are likely to persist until February 2027, with forecast probabilities ranging between 70 and 90 per cent, according to the latest assessment by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS).
Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Science & Technology and Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra Singh in the Lok Sabha said the assessment was based on INCOIS’ indigenous Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML)-based El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction system along with the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System.
The Union Minister said that while El Niño has historically been linked with weaker Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall over some parts of the country, it is not the only factor influencing monsoon performance.
Other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and regional ocean-atmosphere interactions, also play a role.
Dr. Jitendra Singh said the impact of the prevailing El Niño conditions on the Indian monsoon would depend on the evolution of associated ocean-atmosphere conditions and prevailing wind patterns during the monsoon season.
He added that the situation is being closely monitored through advanced forecasting systems.
The Union Minister said the evolving El Niño may influence atmospheric circulation over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and increase the possibility of marine heatwaves due to persistent warming in these regions.
Such changes may affect ocean mixing, nutrient availability and biological productivity, with possible implications for fish distribution and coastal marine ecosystems. Variations in wave and swell conditions could also impact navigation, offshore activities and coastal operations.
Highlighting the government’s preparedness, Dr. Jitendra Singh said INCOIS has strengthened Ocean State Forecasting and marine multi-hazard early warning services through high-resolution forecasting models for storm surge, high waves, swell surge and high currents.
The forecasting system has been enhanced with an expanded ocean observation network comprising ocean gliders, moored buoys, Argo floats, tide gauges and satellite observations, integrated with advanced data assimilation systems.
He said the government has strengthened round-the-clock operational monitoring, multi-platform dissemination of advisories and impact-based forecasting, along with stakeholder training programmes, mock exercises and awareness campaigns to improve preparedness among coastal communities.
Dr. Jitendra Singh further said that under the Deep Ocean Mission, ₹145.06 crore has been allocated during the current financial year for mapping marine resources. Biodiversity surveys of seamounts in India’s Exclusive Economic Zone are being expanded, while advanced Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) and Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) are being deployed for exploration of hydrothermal vents, mineral-rich zones and marine resources.
The Union Minister said INCOIS provides Ocean State Forecast services to coastal states, including Tamil Nadu, with forecasts of waves, winds, swells, currents and sea surface temperature up to 10 days in advance. High-wave, swell surge and high-current advisories are regularly issued to state authorities to support disaster preparedness and marine safety.
He added that tide gauge stations, Coastal Wave Rider Buoys and tsunami preparedness programmes have been established in collaboration with state governments to strengthen coastal resilience.
Dr. Jitendra Singh said the government would continue investing in indigenous forecasting technologies, advanced ocean observations and scientific decision-support systems to improve climate and ocean predictions and provide timely advisories to governments, coastal communities, fishermen and other stakeholders.
TNT TS
