New Delhi, Mar 26 (TNT): Domestic consumption and sustained investments are expected to support India’s GDP growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27, even as global growth is likely to slip below 3 per cent, industry body ASSOCHAM said on Thursday.
In a statement, ASSOCHAM appreciated the timely and effective measures taken by the government to mitigate the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.
Nirmal K Minda, President of ASSOCHAM, said India’s economy continues to grow strongly, with GDP expected to rise by 7.6 per cent in FY26, while exports are likely to remain steady at around 6 per cent.
He said strong government support through reforms has boosted business confidence, with consumption at a multi-year high and investments gaining momentum.
India is expected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in FY27, supported by resilient domestic demand, even as global economic growth is projected to fall below 3 per cent amid geopolitical uncertainties.
The industry body noted that India’s economic resilience has strengthened despite post-COVID challenges and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with the country maintaining growth above 7 per cent over the past three years.
Key indicators remain robust, with India’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 56.9 for manufacturing and 58.1 for services in February 2026—among the highest globally.
India’s exports grew by about 6 per cent between April and February 2025-26 to USD 791 billion, compared to USD 748 billion in the same period last year, driven by sectors such as engineering goods, electronics, chemicals, gems and jewellery, and agriculture.
However, ASSOCHAM cautioned that disruptions due to the West Asia conflict could impact key export sectors, including gems and jewellery, pharmaceuticals and agriculture, particularly due to higher logistics costs and shipping delays.
The body noted that GCC countries account for a significant share of India’s pharma exports, while West Asia is a key market for agricultural goods and a major hub for gems and jewellery trade.
It also warned that rising energy prices, coupled with rupee depreciation, could add to inflationary pressures, particularly in segments such as LPG.
A coordinated policy approach involving supply monitoring and strategic stock management would help India navigate global energy volatility and maintain economic stability, it said.
The industry body added that a prolonged US–Iran conflict could disrupt global energy supply chains, increase logistics costs and lead to commodity price volatility, impacting multiple sectors including transport, manufacturing and consumer goods.
Globally, such disruptions could drag world GDP growth below 3 per cent, with adverse effects on trade, tourism and supply chains, ASSOCHAM added.
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